道瓊指數上看10萬點 看懂巴菲特的反諷
其實，由訪談的關鍵段落可看出，巴菲特假設利率10年維持在2.3%不變的可能性很低，尤其現在利率處於循環週期，當利率上升，利率如同地心引力一般拉低股價的情況就會發生。
所謂只要美國系統以現有方式持續運作，道瓊工業指數會到10萬點的說法，其實隱含反諷意味。因為歷史經驗顯示，美國系統的運作常受人為干擾而出現極端情況。
巴菲特訪談關鍵段落
If interest rates were 7 or 8 percent then these prices would look exceptionally high.
如果現在利率是7%∼8%，那麼股價看起來非常高。
But you have to measure, you know, you measure everything against: interest rates, basically, and interest rates act like gravity on valuation. ……
但基本上，你必須以利率來衡量每件事，因為利率對評價而言，就像地心引力，評價會因此被拉低⋯⋯
But measured against interest rates, stocks actually are on the cheap side compared to historic valuations.
以利率來衡量股價，相較於歷史評價，目前股價是便宜的。
But the risk always is, is that — that interest rates go up a lot, and that brings stocks down.
但風險總是在，如果利率上升很多，就會讓股價下跌。
But I would say this, if the ten-year stays at 230, and they would stay there for ten years, you would regret very much not having bought stocks now…….
但我會這樣說， 如果10年期債券殖利率可以在230個基本點（1個基本點是0.01%）的位置維持10年，你會後悔現在沒有買進股票⋯⋯
You know, you're going to see a Dow that certainly approaches 100,000 and that doesn't require any miracles, that just requires the American system continuing to function pretty much as it has.
你知道，你可以看到道瓊工業指數上10萬點，這不需要奇蹟，這只需要美國系統能以它現有的方式持續運作。
全文未完，完整內容請見《Money錢》2017年4月號第115期
